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NPR estimates US heat-related deaths about five times higher than official count
NPR, together with Boston University’s Center for Climate and Health, calculated that heat was linked to roughly about 9,000 deaths per year in the United States from 2018–2025. In contrast, death certificates recorded heat as a contributing factor in only about 1,700 cases annually over the same period.
The researchers used weekly mortality data from 530 counties that together represent ~73% of the US population, excluding 2020 due to the pandemic. They matched each week’s temperature—and the following week’s—to death counts, comparing local temperatures to each area’s normal climate to find the mortality‑minimum temperature for each state.
By aggregating county‑level estimates and scaling them to the continental United States, the model produced a national figure of approximately nine thousand heat‑associated deaths per year. In Maricopa County, where Phoenix is located, investigators already ask about air‑conditioning, electricity bills and medications that increase heat sensitivity when probing deaths.
Because different counting methods yield vastly different numbers, the way heat‑related mortality is measured directly influences which risks are prioritized for prevention efforts.
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