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PostJapan — the most indebted nation in the history of civilisation — has hit upon a bold new fiscal strategy: spend dramati…

16 September 2026
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The Macro Butler
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Japan — the most indebted nation in the history of civilisation — has hit upon a bold new fiscal strategy: spend dramatically more while collecting dramatically less and act surprised when the bond market objects. Tokyo is weighing a defence spending target of 3.5% of GDP to match its NATO peers — roughly ¥24 trillion, more than double the current level — even as Prime Minister Takaichi's cabinet simultaneously approves slashing the consumption tax on food from 8% to 1%, a ¥5 trillion giveaway the government swears it will fund without new debt, which is the fiscal equivalent of promising to fill the bathtub while the drain is open and the taps are running.
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TThe Macro ButlerDirect bidders took a record-high 30.7%, and dealers were stuck with 16.9%, near a record. Domestic buyers and the dealers who must bid are now absorbing what tTThe Macro ButlerThe successful auctions needed a sell-off first — that isn't demand for your debt, it's a discount on it.
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TThe Macro ButlerThe bond market, unamused by the arithmetic, sent the 10-year JGB yield to 3.04% — its highest since 1996, double where it sat a year ago — while the yen predicTThe Macro ButlerJapan isn't managing a fiscal policy, it's lighting the fuse on the sovereign debt crisis and hoping nobody smells the smoke.
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