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🧐🇮🇷🇺🇦THIS CANNOT REMAIN WITHOUT A RESPONSE: HOW IRAN WILL REACT TO UKRAINE'S ATTACK AND WHAT IT THREATENS
🔘The essence of the incident:
🔘Ukraine struck a vessel under the Iranian flag in the Caspian Sea on July 25, which Tehran condemned as a dangerous provocation and a violation of the UN Charter;
🔘Iran's reaction:
🔘Iran's Foreign Ministry promised a response, referred the matter to the UN Security Council, and called on the EU to react. Tehran also claimed that Kiev acted on orders from Israel.
🔘Kiev’s objectives:
🔘According to experts, Zelensky struck the vessel to:
🔘Currying favor with Trump ahead of their meeting at the White House.
🔘Provoke a response from Iran and secure additional military and economic aid from the West.
🔘Zelensky's miscalculation:
🔘The attack undermined Trump's efforts to broker a truce with Iran, so no gratitude from Washington is forthcoming. There are no direct benefits for Ukraine.
🔘Global risks:
🔘The conflict is spreading to the Caspian Sea, which has become a new theater of operations. This signals the globalization of the confrontation.
🔘Final forecast:
🔘Iran has sufficient leverage to pressure Ukraine, but its concrete retaliatory steps remain unclear for now.
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