Venture Capital

🤖 Anthropic IPO Filing Anthropic filed an S-1 for an IPO after the congressional elections. Reuters highlighted key figures. Revenue rose 12-fold in 2025. The two largest clients each account for 12% of revenue. GAAP net loss in FY25 was $42 billion, while actual cash operating losses were about $8 billion. The rest reflects accounting for instruments convertible into Anthropic shares. Valuation could exceed $2 trillion. ✔️ @venture

💰 ADAPT Act Targets Crypto Taxes Senate Republicans introduced the ADAPT Act, which would take effect in 2027. Stablecoin payments would be tax-free when the coin stays within 3% of $1, and network fees under $10 per transaction would not be taxed. Wash sale rules would apply to crypto, closing a tax-loss loophole. Mining and staking rewards would get clearer sourcing rules. Foreign investors using a US broker would not be treated as doing business in the US. Crypto donations would no longer require a formal appraisal, matching stock donations. ✔️ @venture

September made no sense. Stocks barely moved, bonds had their worst month in years, and crypto had its best month in 8 months. Here's how everything played out: 🖱 S&P 500 fell -0.59% but overall 78% of S&P 500 stocks fell in September. 🖱 Fed hiked rates by 25 bps, yet Nasdaq gained +3.9% during the month, and hit a new ALL TIME HIGH. 🖱 AI was holding the U.S. markets up, adding $1.7 TRILLION in market value since August end. 🖱 Bonds were where the real September crash happened. 🖱 US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2002, up 54 basis points alone this month. 🖱 US30Y hit a new 22-year high at 5.612%. 🖱 The US Treasury spent $5.1 billion in long term bond buybacks. 🖱 Volatility in bond markets spiked, MOVE Index, the VIX for Treasury bonds jumped nearly 30% this month. 🖱 WTI crude crossed $106, its highest in 4 months. 🖱 Crypto has outperformed all the global stock markets, up 12.55% despite the CLARITY Act failing. Total Crypto market cap reclaimed $3T for the first time in 8 months. 🖱 BTC reached $87000, and ETH crossed $2,800 giving their highest monthly close in 9 months. ✔️ @venture

Gold does best when real rates fall and trust in the Fed’s independence weakens. Rates held below inflation would be a textbook setup for gold. ✔️ @venture

Longer investment horizons are better. ✔️ @venture

🔗 AI Boom Rebuilds the Stock Market a16z’s State of Markets II report says technology generated about 76% of S&P 500 profit growth in 2026. Capital is shifting from software toward physical infrastructure. Big Tech profits are funding AI computing capacity, increasingly with debt. Demand is strong enough for older Nvidia A100 GPUs to retain high rental prices. New chips are not pushing out the old ones yet. Adoption is still early. Almost 30% of S&P 500 companies report a measurable AI effect, but only about 2% track a specific metric. In spring, only about 2% of US households paid for an AI service. About 75% of public software companies are profitable, but only 30% grow faster than 20% a year. ✔️ @venture