The Macro Butler
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The American consumer, according to the Census Bureau, is thriving. August retail sales jumped 1.2% on the month — the strongest since March — and 6.0% year-on-year, against 0.8% expected. The control group that feeds GDP rose 1.4%, nearly triple forecasts, with core sales matching at 1.4%, the best since September 2024. The engine was online retail, reversing July's slump. Now hold that beside the same month's other reports: sentiment at 47.8 with expectations near record lows, real wages negative for five straight months, year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.6%, and PPI running 5.4%. Americans have never felt worse and have rarely spent more. Two readings are available.
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