Ukraine War Analysis Chat

Around 25 minutes ago, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet entered airspace over Ukrainian-controlled territory for the first time in years, launched a Kh-59/69 cruise missile at Sumy City (which impacted), before returning safely to Kursk Oblast. The Su-35 entered via the village of Turya, flew over the town of Uhroidy, Sumy Oblast, and made a sharp turn north, flying back past Sudzha, Kursk Oblast. It's possible that it was testing for a Ukrainian air defence response. If so, there was none. And it appears that Russia is now fairly confident that Ukraine does not currently possess any PAC-2/3 interceptor missiles necessary to shoot down their aviation. Additionally, it was known that no Ukrainian tactical aircraft were airborne over Sumy Oblast at the time. For reference, Russia usually launches Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and KAB glide-bombs from at least 45 km behind the frontline. Recently there were instances of Su-34s launching KABs from unusually close to the frontline in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts, including once where it flew within 7 km of the frontline. However, this is beyond anything I have ever seen, and to my knowledge, hasn't occurred since 2022.

Slovyansk direction, Donetsk oblast. There is a worrying deterioration of the situation in the fortress city of Mykolaivka. Due to Russia consolidating control of the forests north of Ray-Oleksandrivka (a perfect base for infiltrations), Russian forces have launched repeated DRG and assault group infiltrations throughout 80-90% of Mykolaivka. The Russians deny Ukraine solid control of the Slovyansk thermal power plant and through even the western streets of Mykolaivka. As a result, the furthest advanced Russian DRGs are within 3 kilometres of Slovyansk.