Lebanese News and Updates
In IDF's doctrine now, Hezbullah was defeated and after this defeat, Hezbullah should not be allowed to establish itself again even if Hezbullah and Lebanon adhere strictly to the ceasefire agreement. It does not matter if Hezbullah disarmed south of the Litani river and it does not matter if Hezbullah is not threating to attack Israel. As long as there is a Hezbullah who carries an anti-Israel ideology, Israel will continue to see him as the historic threat he was and act based on that.
See today's large wave of Israeli attacks are not an exclusive example of this. The violent attacks can be classified under how Israel perceives Lebanon today, as weak and vulnerable with no foe on par and wants to exert a price too high for such a negligible attack from Lebanon. Even with Hezbullah's denial, the IDF attacked Hezbullah because they know they are the only meaningful future threat. The lack of proportionality is a message of strength and an act to yet again comfort the settlers and punish the Lebanese. This attack happened because we lost the deterrence during this war and the Lebanese state failed to uphold the 5-member committee to its obligations to set a leach on Israel.
See, the ceasefire agreement was close to perfect had it been implemented as it should be. Like it or not, Hezbullah largely disarmed in south of the Litani river and handed many key positions to the Lebanese state. Similarly, the U.S has confirmed that the Lebanese army has destroyed countless Hezbullah rockets and the U.N confirmed that Hezbullah did not attempt any military movement in the border area since the ceasefire in November.
The Lebanese army claims to have dismantled more than 400 infrastructure owned by hezbullah.
Despite that, Israel not only demolished the border towns during the ceasefire, and not only did they occupy major hills in south Lebanon and created a buffer zone against the clear stipulation in the ceasefire agreement to fully withdraw, they have attacked without any provocation countless of Hezbullah's assets in Beqaa and north of the Litani river. They also assassinated many members in civilian life, when the ceasefire agreements was clear: No buffer zone, no more armed conflict.
These violations are in the thousands, and day after day continue to be painful despite Lebanon's adherence to the agreement. Hope the above explained the doctrine and I was very brief, else I would have given a much much longer explanation.
Based on this new doctrine, the IDF had the green light to nullify the worth of these agreements including the 1701 UN decree. The issue is, there is no one to exert pressure on Israel, even though Lebanon is a state whose president today is a favorite of the Arabs and Americans. Every Israeli attack on Lebanon is a violation, every Israeli retaliation that is not proportional is a violation, and with every passing second of the Israel presence on Lebanese lands and air activity they are in aggression.
These actions are enough to void the 1701 and the ceasefire agreement, however in our world the UN is too weak to be a meaningful institute and the head of the ceasefire committee is an American general who is clearly biased towards Israel. So what is the solution.
Clearly Hezbullah has no intention to fight now, especially with no funds to rebuild yet and Syria's collapse. Not only that, Hezbullah is still far from concluding the investigations into the mishaps of the previous war and the gaps that led to these results. The conditions are not ripe. For that, Hezbullah through its full adherence to the ceasefire agreement wants to buy time and at the same time succumb itself to the changes in Lebanon that have put it at odds with the new leadership. It is a win win situation where they lay low and let the Lebanese state uphold the responsibility of security that it always have claimed is its sole duty.
1 · 1.7K ·