Lebanese News and Updates (@LebUpdate_Backup) — Telegram channel posts

17 February 2025

Lebanese News and Updates

#admin long thread. Worth reading There was a very important point mentioned yesterday in the speech of Sheikh Naim Qassem that highlighted clearly what we have seen in the past two months, that Hezbullah has stopped at the commands of its leadership any armed action that is categorized as offensive and has shifted to a new temporarily form that is much needed in this phase of history (short term) that will be capable of dealing with a tide that it cannot control due to the results of the war in terms of how it affected them and the change in the Middle East that took place overnight and placed Hezbollah as a loner which no wall to lay its back on. He said "at this time, it is the responsibility of the state" Move forward and your loss might be irreversible, move back, and you will fall into a ditch as deep as time has existed. This dilemma has been hinted in the first speeches of Qassem, where he said that resistance has many forms, and that it is the leadership that defines what form is suitable. These words are not empty, but highlight a necessity to adapt because of the lack of popular support facing wars when the majority has either decided to surrender, act as if not concerned, or decided to reconcile with the US and Israel. The matter here is not that Hezbollah has abandoned armed resistance, not at all. It is simply, that under current circumstances in Lebanon, the fall of Bashar's Syria and the ever growing anger and criminal actions by the majority with Lebanese, your hands are tied and in your hand is not the golden sword you had once. You hold a sword of steel in front of furnace and this furnace is operated by your enemy. Gold can melt, but you get my point. I do believe, had the general Sunni Muslim atmosphere in the Arab world been better towards Palestine and not limited to submission and TikTok videos, the heavy burden Hezbollah is feeling in Lebanon could have been eased because they would have found nations that are willing to voice support to

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And that alone, is an achievement. I say so because I feel useless in what i have to contribute in life, and something is missing in me that i cannot fulfill and I don't know if i ever will, so these explanations are how i can do my part for now. Back to our point about the only similarly that exists between the two wars, is its continuation after it through Lebanese. If you remember, after 2006 Hezbullah faced two harsh years where clashes took place in Beirut and then 7-May incident in 2008 when the Lebanese government decided to confiscate Hezbullah's landline system. Hezbullah is always blamed for this, an "internal war" yet everyone forget that the Druze leader Walid Joumblat confessed it was his doing and that he was asked and abetted by the USA itself. Hezbullah reacted but did not initiate. However even after 7-May, the Lebanese security forces continued to tighten the situation against them and it reached a level when the EU-trained and Sunni led information branch would hack into Hezbullah and there was a real behind the scenes information war between them. The similaries today are beyond doubtable and we saw the first signs with how the Lebanese army leaked his entrance to a strategic Hezbullah base and how they confronted and attached a protest Hezbullah called for and gassed them during a speech by their MPs. There is will again to use the state against Hezbullah. The situation is harsher now, because not because Hezbullah is in a weaker point from a military perspective, but because Syria has collapsed and Iran is not as rich as it was in 2006. Additionally, there is less Arab and Gulf incentives to help in rebuilding. Hezbullah cannot afford it, Iran cannot afford enough or has the ability to send enough funds, and the Arabs are not willing to help unless Hezbullah submits and dis-arms. So not only now is Hezbullah surrounded by a non-friendly regime in Syria and an Israel that is at the height of its power and foreign support, Hezbullah is surrou

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All Hamas and Hezbullah will ever do is ensure that the Palestinian state is not lost, and it ist here duty to continue on this path because betraying this path is not betraying a land, but betraying righteousness and is a reason for humiliation on earth and then punishment by God in the hereafter. It is clear enough for all, how complicated it will be to manage the above, and how hard it will be to actually execute. To rebuild you need training camps that are compromised to the IDF who is attacking even in Beqaa. How can you send 40-60 teens and men there to train. Building weapons need smuggling that is lost because Syria is lost, and manufacturing is going to be complicated because not only is machinery and dual use material not easy to import and is mostly banned by Lebanon long ago, you need infrastructure that is prone to being attached by the IDF once exposed. This is why, the loss of deterrence after this war that was fortified by the weak Lebanese state's stance on the thousands of Israeli violations has compromised the post-war efforts to rebuild and weakened hezbullah's ability to navigate the 1701. As you can see now, the challenges are great, and as we have noticed so far, President Aoun and Nawaf Salam are working to appease the West and namely the U.S by building on the loss of deterrence by Hezbullah and its compromise in Lebanon. This internal compromise was aggravated by the loss of support from the Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement that refused to cooperate and has been leaning closer to the US despite preserving a national sovereign stance. Nabih Berrir's loyalty the Shia has preserved the unity of Amal and Hezbullah, but the Shia alone are not able to protect themselves and the resistance because their numbers do not translate to state power. Being at 33-40% of Lebanon, Shia do not get any major leadership role in the state that can challenge a President or a PM. They neither get the president seat, or Minister of Defense, or interior ministr

6 · 1.6K · 21:17

Hariri does not mind Aoun, but it is unclear how Hariri is going to treat Hezbullah. Funny that, despite all, Hezbullah still have their hand extended to them, hoping they cooperate for the better good for all. And I still believe that Aoun and Nawaf allowed Hezbullah to join the government as a trap to gain legitimacy to the actions that they will take. Hezbullah and Amal dont have the minister majotiry to stop anything, and their presence there will give legitimacy to any gov decision. So far, i cannot asses that the gov and president will do. But how they enforce their anti-hezb policy and the disarming of "all non-state actors" will be what will shape out future. Will they put the state's resource to spy on Hezbullah, raid their weapons manuf sites and depos, arrest their trainers in camps, etc etc. The army and other security forces have good intel on Hezbullah, training camps are known, and routes are known. You get the point. Btw do you know, that part of the intelligence the Lebanese state has gathered on Hezbullah has been fed to the Israeli intelligence machine unknowingly and has had a toll on Hezbullah during the war? Honestly all i want now to go to my village, look at this damn mountain and enjoy the scenery while knowing we are not at risk. But this world is evil, and will always be, and there is not going to be any rest until we die. We the normal people wont rest, so imagine those who will be tasked with rebuilding our resistance and protecting out existence. No need to elaborate here about the hate the many Lebanese have harbored for the Shia and the lies they made and believed. They have blurred the lines between political difference and enemy-hood. They see us as aliens who they want crushed and killed, yet we see them as political foes who have been misguided by hate. On the other side, let's talk about the Israeli challenge. The loss of deterrence that we spoke of had many reasons but wont discuss now, but in simple words that i once use

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IF then the deal was to fully withdraw, by what means do they decide to stay in 5 bases and violate that and the 1701 deal that cleary does not state that Israel can build 5 bases in Lebanon and pretty sure says the IDF should return occupied lands to Lebanon (Ghajar, etc) This is where is finish talking about the future. But before we do, let's talk about something very fast. About the UN and international Law. Fuck it. Frankly, because for fuck's sake has it ever been implemented against the bad guys? or does this world only assumes morality on the side that is opposing the US and the collective western states. How can you explain to me how the US and Israel have not paid for the crimes that they have done, and yet everyone else has a UN resolution that works against it and in favor of the West. Even the UN resolutions that they so effortlessly demand us to adhere to, they reject and do not adhere to. The UN says the IDF occupies the Golan Heights and should leave it. Never will happen and no one ever will enforce and punish Israel for that. Yet this world wants Lebanon to submit to 1701 and twist its meaning and force us to do our part while the IDF still occupies our lands, and has violated it more than 70,000 times since 2006. The number of IDF violations are almost more than the number of weapons the IDF confiscated from Lebanon. Imagine. The world lost its compass and only showcased to everyone again that the law is not to be respected. I say this not because I only learned this, but to remind you again, about how hypocrite they are and how their actions are the main reason that eroded the law based order of this world. It get worse when the US, both democrat and republican, attack then sanction the international criminal court and when Israel kills that many UN members in Gaza and outlaws a UN agency from operating in Israel (UNRWA). They have eroded the legitimacy of the UN and eroded the foundation of this world based order that they keep on telling u

6 · 3.5K · 21:17

The state can give the Lebanese army orders to shoot at IDF drones, the state can order the army to stop any Israeli raids on towns, the state can order the army to protest the IDF airstrikes. The state? can order the army to liberate the hills. There are were no repercussions in this war but on Hezbullah and the Shia. They are the only ones that suffered by loss. They are the only ones who lost their homes, money, and families. The state is intact, the army is intact, and the leadership of the state has the world's support. So what now? What is the future of Hezbullah (in brief). Hezbullah will endure Israeli attacks and attempts to sabotage its rebuild up and Hezbullah will turn away for sometime even after 18-Feb regarding these hills and won't attack now. Like how they gave the state time to ensure the IDF withdraws from towns, they will give the state enough time to convince the US to force the IDF to leave. This is not a decision of weakness from Hezbullah nor because they need to rebuild people's homes or themselves, to liberate these hill you dont need what youd need in a full war. But rather, they dont want to give a pretext for the IDF, the U.S and the Lebanese state to deepen the dagger in south Lebanon and Hezbullah. Sheikh Naim said a few weeks ago that it reached a humiliating state for u, in regards to the Israeli violations, but had we responded once, everyone would have equated our action to a 1,000 Israeli violation and sabotaged everything. At the end of the day, we know the Jewish nature and we know the IDF will not leave through diplomacy and we all know that the resistance will start again in a very limited scope in south Lebanon to liberate these hills by putting enough leverage and burdening the IDF. Had the IDF left today, Hezbullah would not attack the IDF, they could have secured decades of peace. But this arrogance is going to force us into a future that will not be kind to us. To leave, Hezbullah will attack the IDF in those bases.

6 · 4.8K · 21:17

26 March 2025

Lebanese News and Updates

🧵 Thread about the new IDF doctrine and the Lebanese diplomacy At one point there was a serious discussion if the path to a secure and safeguard Lebanon was through diplomacy or strength which is enabled through a resistance. However with time, similar to how the deterrence of the resistance eroded through the mishaps of the latest battle, the worth of diplomatic solutions eroded but faster without any fruits. The difference is that the path to diplomacy was a just a shiny slogan spoken through the mouths of many who either never achieved anything for the overall best of Lebanon or used diplomacy as a veil to hide their ill intentions that intended to drive Lebanon towards full surrender and not only remove it from the few remaining Arab states with an active political and military front against Israel. The goal was to shift its whole identity to one that strips it from its history and culture and put it under the shroud of a client state with no real security and no real worth in this world. You get peace by submission and erasing any threat to the West. The dilemma here is and will always be that the side that chose to not to be part of the resistance does not get burdened at all with loss. They are neither subjected by the enemy to murder, nor are they subjected to material loss and pain. This makes the cost of choosing to be on the other side of the front that assumes the moral high ground in the world affairs, easy and without any costs. On the contrary, the resistance is not only facing the burdens of justifying its existence and then the burdens of building up strength despite the challenges, it is burdened by the immense costs of loss and material damages that affects it and affect its supporting base. This base that needs a lot of effort to keep rallied around the cause. To explain this, compare the costs paid by Hezbullah in 2006 to secure 17 years of unpreceded peace and deterrence before the setback of 2024, verses the costs paid by its political o

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Because to be frank, while a reddendum in Lebanon would be in favor of not accepting normalization with Israel, a referendum in Lebanon would be in favor of disarming Hezbullah. The Shia alone are the ones with enough political wit and understanding to know the importance of this power and what it presents. What many seem to forget, is that power was what liberated south Lebanon to conclude an 18 year long occupation. It was power that liberated the prisoners in 2008 after a costly war, and it this particular costly war that gave Lebanon 18 years of unpreceded peace unwitnessed since the Lebanese state was created in 1940's. Everyone seems to forget these 2 decades. The only difference today, is that Israel is at the height of its strength and has abandoned its old doctrines and is now facing a much inferior enemy than it did months ago. Will not discuss the legitimacy of resistance nor the war. The legitimacy is inherit and the war is discussed in the hyperlinked threads below. The last covers the present and the future that we are in now. https://t.me/LebUpdate/49218 (this thread and attached links) Do read them, they are very useful and I do find the points that they make great debate points that cannot be refuted by any anti-resistance people. What I want to focus on is: does diplomacy actually ensures Lebanon's safety and what is the change in the doctrine of the Israeli army. In terms of doctrine, I'll set aside the spectacular and efficient changes in the Israeli military doctrine that has shaped its warfare and made it a much more efficient fighting force that even without the mishaps faced by Hezbullah, it would have demonstrated a very high-end military performance. The recent changes in the doctrine are about Israel itself and how it perceives threats and it only is akin to the operation in 1982, as an example, where Israel assumed that the basis of its security extended from securing the border to assuming that eliminating the core threat on statew

1 · 1.8K · 00:57

In IDF's doctrine now, Hezbullah was defeated and after this defeat, Hezbullah should not be allowed to establish itself again even if Hezbullah and Lebanon adhere strictly to the ceasefire agreement. It does not matter if Hezbullah disarmed south of the Litani river and it does not matter if Hezbullah is not threating to attack Israel. As long as there is a Hezbullah who carries an anti-Israel ideology, Israel will continue to see him as the historic threat he was and act based on that. See today's large wave of Israeli attacks are not an exclusive example of this. The violent attacks can be classified under how Israel perceives Lebanon today, as weak and vulnerable with no foe on par and wants to exert a price too high for such a negligible attack from Lebanon. Even with Hezbullah's denial, the IDF attacked Hezbullah because they know they are the only meaningful future threat. The lack of proportionality is a message of strength and an act to yet again comfort the settlers and punish the Lebanese. This attack happened because we lost the deterrence during this war and the Lebanese state failed to uphold the 5-member committee to its obligations to set a leach on Israel. See, the ceasefire agreement was close to perfect had it been implemented as it should be. Like it or not, Hezbullah largely disarmed in south of the Litani river and handed many key positions to the Lebanese state. Similarly, the U.S has confirmed that the Lebanese army has destroyed countless Hezbullah rockets and the U.N confirmed that Hezbullah did not attempt any military movement in the border area since the ceasefire in November. The Lebanese army claims to have dismantled more than 400 infrastructure owned by hezbullah. Despite that, Israel not only demolished the border towns during the ceasefire, and not only did they occupy major hills in south Lebanon and created a buffer zone against the clear stipulation in the ceasefire agreement to fully withdraw, they have attacked without any

1 · 1.7K · 00:57

Here i would like to stress that Hezbullah did not exit the war with conditions that put Lebanon under a state of submission that legitimize the Israeli actions and now begging the state for help. Not at all, the war ended with a ceasefire agreement that stipulated a full withdrawal from Lebanon and end of military attacks from both sides. The agreement is as close to perfect as it gets. Despite that, the IDF violated and did what it did. What will the Lebanese state do? Diplomacy. See here is the issue that we want to tackle. How effective is diplomacy and will it ever achieve anything. Diplomacy is a funny term and honestly I liken it to dhimmism. Unless you are a big powerful state who can use words backed your strong military to get what you want, diplomacy is futile and is begging someone to help because you are too weak and your foe disregards you. This is particularly correct when it comes to Israel. See, diplomacy did not stop the Russian aggression of Ukraine for e.g. nor did diplomacy stop any war. And when it worked, it was only ever backed by the words of strong states or the results of a war. In the case of Israel, forget about occupying Lebanon and the attacks that fell on deaf ears of the UN, US, France, etc. Think of Gaza and the children who were killed. If the world failed to even lift a finger for this grave grave crime, do you think they will care to give weight to Jewish actions in Lebanon. Haaretz describes the IDF war in Gaza to one the biggest massacres against children in recent history. Children. If nothing was done for the sake of those innocent children whose bodies were shredded beyond recognition, why would diplomacy work in Lebanon and why would they force Israel to adhere to any agreements. For decades, Israel has focused on building a military that can be classified as the most superior in the Middle East and they have achieved that. The U.S ensured that only through this superiority can Israel survive. Where was diplomacy for Is

1 · 3.4K · 00:57

See, diplomacy is not a bad thing. Oh how I wish for this to be solved diplomacy and we not face another bloodshed and for us Lebanese in the south to build our houses and our business and know we are not risking losing it all one day. However with Israel, diplomacy will never work, because Israel is Israel. Diplomacy did not work in 1978, 1982, 1985, 1993, 1996, 2000, 2006, etc. It did not liberate the lands nor the prisoners. Set all aside, what did Syria do to get attacked by the IDF? What did Syria do to trigger not only the waves of attacks that deeply damaged the state's assets but now get its south fully under Israeli fire and partial occupation and daily incursions. Do you understand that Israel is now no where near a position where it is ready to concede to anyone inferior to it nor is it willing to adhere to any law or stipulations? Israel is willing to sacrifice its hostages in an attempt to erase Gaza and ensure no other 7-oct happens ever again. So do you think the IDF will accept to leave the Lebanese hills that are the only factor of comfort for its settlers to come home. The same settlers who were not satisfied by the unprecedented results of the Israel war in Lebanon and are demanding much much more!? For now, the state has to make a clear choice of not giving Israel the pretext to attack Lebanon. Unfortunately the state is now stuck with an PM who comes from anti-Hezb political background with a prestigious CV who speaks in an Egyptian accent on Saudi TV and surrounds himself with NGO-funded and soros-backed Ministers â€¦. and a president who is taking his power from the US and the Arab gulf states who pressured everyone to elect him. I do have more faith from Aoun than from Nawaf, but the gravity of how much the US and Saudi Arabia wanted him to be elected is just a very worrisome factor for me. What did he promise them or what did he guarantee? Regardless, the state should continue the diplomatic effort because if it achieves anything thr

1 · 5.8K · 00:57

The Israeli invasion which I likened earlier to today's doctrine started over a botched assassination attempt against an Israeli official after a series of dozens of Israeli falseflags that intended to drive the Palestinians to attack to give the jews the pretext they needed to invade. Here is a PDF about these falseflags: https://t.me/LebPublications/5 Finally, disregard two types of people who will never argue you with good faith. One that calls to normalize with Israel and wants to be friends and buddies with those who have occupied us and murdered us for decades nor argue with someone whose hate for Hezbullah had blinded him and made him justify the Israeli attacks in Lebanon Their argument is weak, but as Imam Ali says: I have never debated a fool who did not defeat me

5 · 6.8K · 00:57